National Home Prices in Flux, Inventory Improving

u.s. home prices core logic home starts HPI census bureau hud
The U.S. Census Bureau

Annual home prices fell in April for the first time since 2012, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index. It showed a 0.2 percent year-over-year decrease.

Data from the latest national index was reported on June 27.

The 10-City Composite showed a decrease of 1.2 percent, down from the 0.7 percent decrease in March. The 20-City Composite posted a 1.7 percent year-over-year loss, down from -1.1 percent in March.

Indices Up Month over Month

After seasonal adjustments, the U.S. National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 0.5 percent. The 10-City Composite gained 1 percent and the 20-City Composite posted an increase of 0.9 percent.

“The U.S. housing market continued to strengthen in April 2023,” S&P DJI Managing Director Craig J. Lazzara said. “Home prices peaked in June 2022, declined until January 2023, and then began to recover.”

Home Starts on the Rise

May housing numbers released jointly by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development showed positive growth in housing starts and completions, largely driven by multi-family starts.

May housing starts came in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.631 million, up 21.7 percent, beating the market estimate of 1.34 million.

Housing starts are up 5.7 percent year-over-year, driven by gains in the Midwest, South, and West.

The jump in May represented the largest single-month gain in home starts since January of 1990.

“Looking at the details, gains were broad-based with three of four major regions and both single-family and multi-unit starts contributing,” Brian Wesbury, chief economist at First Trust Advisors, noted in a recent letter to subscribers. “While one month doesn’t make a trend, housing starts are now at the highest level since the previous peak in April of 2022, before mortgage rates began to surge. This signals that the developers may have finally found their footing in what has been a challenging environment for sales.”

Building permits and housing completions are up annually by 5.2 and 5 percent, respectively.


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