Labor Beats Expectations by 100,000
The U.S. Department of Labor reported a jump in the work force, adding 254,000 jobs in September, 100,000 over the most optimistic expectation.
Unemployment went down a tenth to 4.1 percent.
Employment in food services rose by 69,000 in September and health care added 45,000. Construction employment continued to trend up with more than 25,000 jobs added. Manufacturing was down slightly.
Average hourly earnings rose 0.4 percent in September and are up 4 percent in 12 months. Aggregate hours declined a tenth in September but are up 0.9 percent from last year.
Additionally, July and August non-farm payroll were increased by a total of 72,000 jobs.
After the Fed cut rates a half point in September, analysts speculated whether another half point cut would come in November and/or December. However, the overachieving labor market may provide the Fed with the real option for a series of quarter point cuts instead.
The current inflation rate is 2.5 percent, a half point above the Fed’s goal. But a slower simmer, if possible on the rates, and leveling in the bond markets coming at an easier pace could provide the time for lagging effects in the market and increase the odds of a “soft landing” that is increasingly likely.
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